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10/4/2017 0 Comments

Notes From Flexible Packaging Association 2017 Fall Executive Conference

Domestic Demand:   Down 5.3% through August and will not recover by year end.

Producer Domestic Sales:  Through August, sales are up 1.4% per ACC data.  Difference due to decline in 2017 import levels, down 41% through August (IHSM estimate)

PP Production:   Through August is off by 1.5% compared to prior year.

Recent Demand Recovery:   In May/June coupled with multiple supply disruptions led to margin increase announcements for August of 3 cpp. 

Hurricane Harvey Likely To Support Margin:   Near term though structural challenges for the market exist for 2018
  • 60% of NAM PP capacity affected by the storm
  • Expectation of ~300 million pounds of lost September production
  • All but one plant back up by September 10
  • Wide spec market peaked up 15 to 20 cpp
  • ​Imports to increase in Q4
  • 3 cent margin enhancement likely….by October 
  • Propylene volatility expected to hurt demand post recovery 
  • North America’s Price on PP resin closely tied to Asia
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